I'm seeing a pattern here
A couple of weeks ago, I noted that the forces in Fallujah were discussing a proposal to disarm. In my mind, this meant they were actually surrendering. It occurred to me last night that the Bin Laden video struck a similar chord.
Bin Laden appears in a videotape and says, if you don't attack us, we won't attack you. Well, think about this... For the last seven years or so, his message has been: Attack Americans wherever they may be found. Why the sudden change in tune? Is this all bluster from a guy who merely wants to influence our elections? Because it sounds a lot like he might be saying, "Hey now... Um, let's call this whole war thing off. We will grant you security if you agree to our terms."
I'm sure they still have some capability to strike us -- whether they're capable of the same kind of "spectacular" attacks they've attempted on us in the past, I don't know. But if OBL was so sure of his capability, why not just strike? Why not just do the deed and then show up on video saying, folks, if you want to avoid another one of these, keep that in mind when you vote!
My guess is that he needs the US to stop its activity in Iraq. He needs the US to stop its activity in Afghanistan. I hate to use the hackneyed phrase, but it's appropriate: he is on the run. I imagine he lies awake at night thinking, "If these damn US soldiers would just stop freaking buggin me for two days, I could maybe do something!!" He's frustrated. He needs the US to stop. He's either asking for surrender, or pulling the classic fake-cease-fire so he can buy more time to prepare for his next plans.
The Belmont Club had thoughts along similar lines.
Posted by Matt at October 30, 2004 1:48 PM
